Intravascular Microaxial Left Ventricular Assist Device Manufacturer Payments to Cardiologists and Use of Devices.

This study examines whether payments from a left ventricular assist device manufacturer to cardiologists performing percutaneous coronary intervention were associated with any use of the devices.

Association of Race and Ethnicity With Postoperative Gabapentinoid and Opioid Prescribing Trends for Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Disparities in opioid prescribing by race/ethnicity have been described in many healthcare settings, with White patients being more likely to receive an opioid prescription than other races studied. As surgeons increase prescribing of nonopioid medications in response to the opioid epidemic, it is unknown whether postoperative prescribing disparities also exist for these medications, specifically gabapentinoids. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a 20% Medicare sample for 2013-2018. We included patients ≥66 years without prior gabapentinoid use who underwent one of 14 common surgical procedures. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients prescribed gabapentinoids at discharge among racial and ethnic groups. Secondary outcomes were days' supply of gabapentinoids, opioid prescribing at discharge, and oral morphine equivalent (OME) of opioid prescriptions. Trends over time were constructed by analyzing proportion of postoperative prescribing of gabapentinoids and opioids for each year. For trends by year by racial/ethnic groups, we ran a multivariable logistic regression with an interaction term of procedure year and racial/ethnic group. RESULTS: Of the 494,922 patients in the cohort (54% female, 86% White, 5% Black, 5% Hispanic, mean age 73.7 years), 3.7% received a new gabapentinoid prescription. Gabapentinoid prescribing increased over time for all groups and did not differ significantly among groups (P = 0.13). Opioid prescribing also increased, with higher proportion of prescribing to White patients than to Black and Hispanic patients in every year except 2014. CONCLUSIONS: We found no significant prescribing variation of gabapentinoids in the postoperative period between racial/ethnic groups. Importantly, we found that despite national attention to disparities in opioid prescribing, variation continues to persist in postoperative opioid prescribing, with a higher proportion of White patients being prescribed opioids, a difference that persisted over time.

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on meaningful activity engagement in racially and ethnically diverse older adults.

BACKGROUND: Participation and active engagement in meaningful activities support the emotional and physical well-being of older adults. In 2020, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic altered lives, including the ability to participate in meaningful activities. This study compared meaningful activity engagement before and at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in a nationally representative, diverse sample >65 years between 2015 and 2020. METHODS: We described the proportions and characteristics of National Health and Aging Trends Study participants and their engagement in four activities: visiting friends or family, attending religious services, participating in clubs/classes/other organized activities, and going out for enjoyment. We used mixed effects logistic regressions to compare probabilities of activity engagement before 2020 and in 2020, adjusting for age, sex, functional status, income, geographic region, anxiety-depression, and transportation issues. RESULTS: Of 6815 participants in 2015, the mean age was 77.7 (7.6) years; 57% of participants were female; 22% were Black, 5% Hispanic, 2% were American Indian, and 1% were Asian; 20% had disability; and median income was $33,000. Participation in all four activities remained consistent between 2015 and 2019 and declined in 2020. Significant differences existed in attending religious services (p < 0.01) and going out for enjoyment (p < 0.001) by race and ethnicity, before and after the start of COVID-19. Black and Hispanic participants experienced the largest decline in attending religious services (-32%, -28%) while Asian and White participants experienced the largest decline in going out for enjoyment (-49%, -56%). CONCLUSIONS: Potential quality of life tradeoffs should be considered to a greater extent in future pandemic emergencies.

Trends in the Use of Gabapentinoids and Opioids in the Postoperative Period Among Older Adults.

Importance: In response to the opioid epidemic, recommendations from some pain societies have encouraged surgeons to embrace multimodal pain regimens with the intent of reducing opioid use in the postoperative period, including by prescribing gabapentinoids. Objective: To describe trends in postoperative prescribing of both gabapentinoids and opioids after a variety of surgical procedures by examining nationally representative Medicare data and further understand variation by procedure. Design, Setting, and Participants: This serial cross-sectional study of gabapentinoid prescribing from January 1, 2013, through December 31, 2018, used a 20% US Medicare sample. Gabapentinoid-naive patients 66 years or older undergoing 1 of 14 common noncataract surgical procedures performed in older adults were included. Data were analyzed from April 2022 to April 2023. Exposure: One of 14 common surgical procedures in older adults. Main Outcomes and Measures: Rate of postoperative prescribing of gabapentinoids and opioids, defined as a prescription filled between 7 days before the procedure and 7 days after discharge from surgery. Additionally, concomitant prescribing of gabapentinoids and opioids in the postoperative period was assessed. Results: The total study cohort included 494 922 patients with a mean (SD) age of 73.7 (5.9) years, 53.9% of whom were women and 86.0% of whom were White. A total of 18 095 patients (3.7%) received a new gabapentinoid prescription in the postoperative period. Of those receiving a new gabapentinoid prescription, 10 956 (60.5%) were women and 15 529 (85.8%) were White. After adjusting for age, sex, race and ethnicity, and procedure type in each year, the rate of new postoperative gabapentinoid prescribing increased from 2.3% (95% CI, 2.2%-2.4%) in 2014 to 5.2% (95% CI, 5.0%-5.4%) in 2018 (P < .001). While there was variation between procedure types, almost all procedures saw an increase in both gabapentinoid and opioid prescribing. In this same period, opioid prescribing increased from 56% (95% CI, 55%-56%) to 59% (95% CI, 58%-60%) (P < .001). Concomitant prescribing also increased from 1.6% (95% CI, 1.5%-1.7%) in 2014 to 4.1% (95% CI, 4.0%-4.3%) in 2018 (P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cross-sectional study of Medicare beneficiaries suggest that new postoperative gabapentinoid prescribing increased without a subsequent downward trend in the proportion of patients receiving postoperative opioids and a near tripling of concurrent prescribing. Closer attention needs to be paid to postoperative prescribing for older adults, especially when using multiple types of medications, which can have adverse drug events.

Hospice Quality, Race, and Disenrollment in Hospice Enrollees With Dementia.

Background: Racial and ethnic minoritized people with dementia (PWD) are at high risk of disenrollment from hospice, yet little is known about the relationship between hospice quality and racial disparities in disenrollment among PWD. Objective: To assess the association between race and disenrollment between and within hospice quality categories in PWD. Design/Setting/Subjects: Retrospective cohort study of 100% Medicare beneficiaries 65+ enrolled in hospice with a principal diagnosis of dementia, July 2012-December 2017. Race and ethnicity (White/Black/Hispanic/Asian and Pacific Islander [AAPI]) was assessed with the Research Triangle Institute (RTI) algorithm. Hospice quality was assessed with the publicly-available Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS) survey item on overall hospice rating, including a category for hospices exempt from public reporting (unrated). Results: The sample included 673,102 PWD (mean age 86, 66% female, 85% White, 7.3% Black, 6.3% Hispanic, 1.6% AAPI) enrolled in 4371 hospices nationwide. Likelihood of disenrollment was higher in hospices in the lowest quartile of quality ratings (vs. highest quartile) for both White (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.12 [95% confidence interval 1.06-1.19]) and minoritized PWD (AOR range 1.2-1.3) and was substantially higher in unrated hospices (AOR range 1.8-2.0). Within both low- and high-quality hospices, minoritized PWD were more likely to be disenrolled compared with White PWD (AOR range 1.18-1.45). Conclusions: Hospice quality predicts disenrollment, but does not fully explain disparities in disenrollment for minoritized PWD. Efforts to improve racial equity in hospice should focus both on increasing equity in access to high-quality hospices and improving care for racial minoritized PWD in all hospices.

New psychotropic medication use among Medicare beneficiaries with dementia after hospital discharge.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalizations among people with dementia (PWD) may precipitate behavioral changes, leading to the psychotropic medication use despite adverse outcomes and limited efficacy. We sought to determine the incidence of new psychotropic medication use among community-dwelling PWD after hospital discharge and, among new users, the proportion with prolonged use. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study using a 20% random sample of Medicare claims in 2017, including hospitalized PWD with traditional and Part D Medicare who were 68 years or older. The primary outcome was incident prescribing at discharge of psychotropics including antipsychotics, sedative-hypnotics, antiepileptics, and antidepressants. This was defined as new prescription fills (i.e., from classes not used in 180 days preadmission) within 7 days of hospital or skilled nursing facility discharge. Prolonged use was defined as the proportion of new users who continued to fill newly prescribed medications beyond 90 days of discharge. RESULTS: The cohort included 117,022 hospitalized PWD with a mean age of 81 years; 63% were female. Preadmission, 63% were using at least 1 psychotropic medication; 10% were using medications from ≥3 psychotropic classes. These included antidepressants (44% preadmission), antiepileptics (29%), sedative-hypnotics (21%), and antipsychotics (11%). The proportion of PWD discharged from the hospital with new psychotropics ranged from 1.9% (antipsychotics) to 2.9% (antiepileptics); 6.6% had at least one new class started. Among new users, prolonged use ranged from 36% (sedative-hypnotics) to 63% (antidepressants); across drug classes, prolonged use occurred in 51%. Predictors of newly initiated psychotropics included length of stay (≥median vs.

Anesthesia Care for Cataract Surgery in Medicare Beneficiaries.

Importance: Cataract surgery in the US is routinely performed with anesthesia care, whereas anesthesia care for other elective, low-risk, outpatient procedures is applied more selectively. Objective: To identify predictors of anesthesia care in Medicare beneficiaries undergoing cataract surgery and evaluate anesthesia care for cataract surgery compared with other elective, low-risk, outpatient procedures. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based, retrospective observational cohort study included Medicare beneficiaries 66 years or older who underwent cataract surgery in 2017. The data were analyzed from August 2020 through May 2021. Interventions (for clinical trials) or Exposures (for observational studies): Anesthesia care during elective, low-risk, outpatient procedures. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalence of anesthesia care during cataract surgery compared with other low-risk procedures; association of anesthesia care with patient, clinician, and health system characteristics; and proportion of patients experiencing a systemic complication within 7 days of cataract surgery compared with patients undergoing other low-risk procedures. Results: Among 36 652 cataract surgery patients, the mean (SD) age was 74.7 (6.1) years; 21 690 (59.2%) were female; 2200 (6.6%) were Black and 32 049 (87.4%) were White. Anesthesia care was more common among patients undergoing cataract surgery compared with patients undergoing other low-risk procedures (89.8% vs range of <1% to 70.2%). Neither the patient's age (adjusted odds ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00-1.02; P = .01) nor Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score (CCI of ≥3: adjusted odds ratio, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.95-1.18; P = .28; reference, CCI score of 0-1) was strongly associated with anesthesia care for cataract surgery, but a model comprising a single variable identifying the ophthalmologist predicted anesthesia care with a C statistic of 0.96. Approximately 6.0% of ophthalmologists never used anesthesia care, 76.6% always used anesthesia care, and 17.4% used it for only a subset of patients. Fewer cataract surgery patients experienced systemic complications within 7 days (2833 [7.7%]), even when limited to patients of ophthalmologists who never used anesthesia care (108 [7.4%]), than patients undergoing other low-risk procedures (range, 13.2%-52.2%). Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this cohort study suggest that systemic complications occurred less frequently after cataract surgery compared with other elective, low-risk, outpatient procedures during which anesthesia care was less commonly used. Anesthesia care was not associated with patient characteristics, such as older age or worse health status, but with the ophthalmologists' usual approach to cataract surgery sedation. The study findings suggest an opportunity to use anesthesia care more selectively in patients undergoing cataract surgery.

The epidemiology of preexisting geriatric and palliative conditions in older adults with poor prognosis cancers.

BACKGROUND: Older patients with poor prognosis cancers have complex needs that can benefit from geriatrics and palliative care principles. Because they are not routinely assessed, the prevalence of preexisting geriatric and palliative conditions in this population is unknown. METHODS: We used the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study (HRS) linked with Medicare claims (1998-2016) to identify adults aged ≥65 years diagnosed with poor prognosis cancers (cancers with a median survival ≤1 year). Using the HRS interview before the first Medicare cancer claim, we used survey-weighted descriptive statistics and modified Poisson regression analysis to examine the prevalence of the following clinically significant conditions: functional impairment, difficulty with mobility, falls and injurious falls, social support, cognition, advance care planning, use of pain or sleep medications, and presence of pain or breathlessness. RESULTS: Of 2105 participants (mean age 76, 53% women, 34% lung cancer, 21% gastrointestinal cancer), the median survival was 9.6 months. Approximately 65% had difficulty climbing stairs (95% CI 63%-67%), 49% had no advance directive (95% CI 45%-54%), 35% lived alone (95% CI 33%-37%), 36% fell in the last 2 years (95% CI 34%-38%), and 32% rated their memory as poor (95% CI 29%-34%). After adjusting for gender, cancer type, and HRS survey time before the first Medicare claim for a poor prognosis cancer, functional impairment and falls were highest among adults aged 85+. Adults aged 65-74 years were less likely to have an advance directive. After adjusting for age, cancer type, and HRS survey time, women had a higher rate of pain and physical impairment. In exploratory analyses, race and socioeconomic status predicted difficulty with mobility and instrumental activities of daily living, living alone, and advance directive completion. CONCLUSIONS: Due to a high prevalence across multiple domains, all older adults with poor prognosis cancers should be assessed for geriatric and palliative care conditions.

Prolonged use of newly prescribed gabapentin after surgery.

BACKGROUND: Surgeons have made substantial efforts to decrease postoperative opioid prescribing, largely because it can lead to prolonged use. These efforts include adoption of non-opioid pain medication including gabapentin. Like opioids, gabapentin use may be prolonged, increasing the risk of altered mental status and even overdose and death when taken concurrently with opioids. However, little is known about postoperative prolonged use of gabapentin in older adults. METHODS: We merged a 20% sample of Medicare Carrier, MedPAR and Outpatient Files with Part D for 2013-2018. We included patients >65 years old without prior gabapentinoid use who underwent common non-cataract surgical procedures. We defined new postoperative gabapentin as fills for 7 days before surgery until 7 days after discharge. We excluded patients whose discharge disposition was hospice or death. The primary outcome was prolonged use of gabapentin, defined as a fill>90 days after discharge. To identify risk factors for prolonged use, we constructed logistic regression models, adjusted for procedure and patient characteristics, length of stay, disposition location, and care complexity. RESULTS: Overall, 17,970 patients (3% of all eligible patients) had a new prescription for gabapentin after surgery. Of these, the mean age was 73 years old and 62% were female. The most common procedures were total knee (45%) and total hip (21%) replacements. Prolonged use occurred in 22%. Those with prolonged use were more likely to be women (64% vs. 61%), be non-White (14% vs. 12%), have concurrent prolonged opioid use (44% vs. 18%), and have undergone emergency surgery (8% vs. 4%). On multivariable analysis, being female, having a higher Charlson comorbidity score, having an opioid prescription at discharge and at >90 days and having a higher care complexity were associated with prolonged use of gabapentin. CONCLUSIONS: More than one-fifth of older adults prescribed gabapentin postoperatively filled a prescription >90 days after discharge, especially among patients with more comorbidities and concurrent prolonged opioid use, increasing the risk of adverse drug events and polypharmacy.

A national study of disenrollment from hospice among people with dementia.

BACKGROUND: People with dementia (PWD) are at high risk for hospice disenrollment, yet little is known about patterns of disenrollment among the growing number of hospice enrollees with dementia. DESIGN: Retrospective, observational cohort study of 100% Medicare beneficiaries with dementia aged 65 and older enrolled in the Medicare Hospice Benefit between July 2012 and December 2017. Outcome measures included hospice-initiated disenrollment for patients whose rate of decline ceased to meet the Medicare hospice eligibility guideline of "expected death within 6 months" (extended prognosis) and patient-initiated disenrollment (revocation). Hospice, regional, and patient risk factors and variation were assessed with multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression models. RESULTS: Among 867,695 hospice enrollees with dementia, 70,945 (8.2%) were disenrolled due to extended prognosis and 43,133 (5.0%) revoked within 1-year of their index admission. There was substantial variation in hospice provider disenrollment due to extended prognosis (10th-90th percentile 4.5%-14.6%, adjusted median odds ratio (MOR) 1.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.82, 1.91) and revocation (10th-90th percentile 2.5%-10.1%, MOR 2.09, 95% CI 2.03, 2.14). Among hospital referral regions (HRR), there was more variation in revocation (10th-90th percentile 3.5%-7.6%, MOR 1.4, 95% CI 1.34, 1.47) than extended prognosis (10th-90th percentile 7.0%-9.5%, MOR 1.23, 95% CI 1.18, 1.27), with much higher revocation rates noted in HRRs located in the Southeast and Southern California. A number of patient and hospice characteristics were associated with higher odds of both types of disenrollment (younger age, female sex, minoritized race and ethnicity, Medicaid dual eligibility, Medicare Part C enrollment), while some were associated with revocation only (more comorbidities, newer, smaller, and for-profit hospices). CONCLUSIONS: In this nationally representative study of hospice enrollees with dementia, hospice disenrollment varied by type of hospice, geographic region, and patient characteristics including age, sex, race, and ethnicity. These findings raise important questions about whether and how the Medicare Hospice Benefit could be adapted to reduce disparities and better support PWD.

Sliding scale insulin use in a national cohort study of nursing home residents with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines discourage sliding scale insulin (SSI) use after the first week of a nursing home (NH) admission. We sought to determine the prevalence of SSI and identify factors associated with stopping SSI or transitioning to another short-acting insulin regimen. METHODS: In an observational study from October 1, 2013, to June 30, 2017 of non-hospice Veterans Affairs NH residents with type 2 diabetes and an NH admission over 1 week, we compared the weekly prevalence of SSI versus two other short-acting insulin regimens - fixed dose insulin (FDI) or correction dose insulin (CDI, defined as variable SSI given alongside fixed doses of insulin) - from week 2 to week 12 of admission. Among those on SSI in week 2, we examined factors associated with stopping SSI or transitioning to other regimens by week 5. Factors included demographics (e.g., age, sex, race/ethnicity), frailty-related factors (e.g., comorbidities, cognitive impairment, functional impairment), and diabetes-related factors (e.g., HbA1c, long-acting insulin use, hyperglycemia, and hypoglycemia). RESULTS: In week 2, 21% of our cohort was on SSI, 8% was on FDI, and 7% was on CDI. SSI was the most common regimen in frail subgroups (e.g., 18% of our cohort with moderate-severe cognitive impairment was on SSI vs 5% on FDI and 4% on CDI). SSI prevalence decreased steadily from 21% to 16% at week 12 (p for linear trend <0.001), mostly through stopping SSI. Diabetes-related factors (e.g., hyperglycemia) were more strongly associated with continuing SSI or transitioning to a non-SSI short-acting insulin regimen than frailty-related factors. CONCLUSIONS: SSI is the most common method of administering short-acting insulin in NH residents. More research needs to be done to explore why sliding scale use persists weeks after NH admission and explore how we can replace this practice with safer, more effective, and less burdensome regimens.

Incidence of potentially disruptive medical and social events in older adults with and without dementia.

BACKGROUND: Potentially disruptive medical, surgical, and social events-such as pneumonia, hip fracture, and widowhood-may accelerate the trajectory of decline and impact caregiving needs in older adults, especially among people with dementia (PWD). Prior research has focused primarily on nursing home residents with dementia. We sought to assess the incidence of potentially disruptive events in community-dwelling people with and without dementia. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of participants aged 65+ enrolled in the Health and Retirement Study between 2010 and 2018 (n = 9346), including a subset who were married-partnered at baseline (n = 5105). Dementia was defined with a previously validated algorithm. We calculated age-adjusted and gender-stratified incidence per 1000 person-years and incidence rate ratios of: 1) hospitalization for pneumonia, 2) hip fracture, and 3) widowhood in people with and without dementia. RESULTS: PWD (n = 596) were older (mean age 84 vs. 75) and a higher proportion were female (67% vs. 57%) than people without dementia (PWoD) (n = 8750). Age-adjusted incidence rates (per 1000 person-years) of pneumonia were higher in PWD (113.1; 95% CI 94.3, 131.9) compared to PWoD (62.1; 95% CI 54.7, 69.5), as were hip fractures (12.3; 95% CI 9.1, 15.6 for PWD compared to 8.1; 95% CI 6.9, 9.2 in PWoD). Point estimates of widowhood incidence were slightly higher for PWD (25.3; 95% CI 20.1, 30.5) compared to PWoD (21.9; 95% CI 20.3, 23.5), but differences were not statistically significant. The association of dementia with hip fracture-but not pneumonia or widowhood-was modified by gender (male incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2.24, 95% CI 1.34, 3.75 versus female IRR 1.31 95% CI 0.92,1.86); interaction term p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to PWoD, community-dwelling PWD had higher rates of pneumonia and hip fracture, but not widowhood. Knowing how often PWD experience these events can aid in anticipatory guidance and care planning for this growing population.

Polypharmacy among older adults with dementia compared with those without dementia in the United States.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: In older persons with dementia (PWD), extensive medication use is often unnecessary, discordant with goals of care, and possibly harmful. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence and medication constituents of polypharmacy among older PWD attending outpatient visits in the United States. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: PWD and persons without dementia (PWOD) aged ≥65 years attending outpatient visits recorded in the nationally representative National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS), 2014-2016. MEASUREMENTS: PWD were identified as those with a diagnosis of dementia on the NAMCS encounter form and/or those receiving an anti-dementia medication. Visits with PWD and PWOD were compared in terms of sociodemographic, practice/physician factors, comorbidities, and prescribing outcomes. Regression analyses examined the effect of dementia diagnosis on contributions by clinically relevant medication categories to polypharmacy (defined as being prescribed ≥5 prescription and/or nonprescription medications). RESULTS: The unweighted sample involved 918 visits for PWD and 26,543 visits for PWOD, representing 29.0 and 780 million outpatient visits. PWD had a median age of 81 and on average had 2.8 comorbidities other than dementia; 63% were female. The median number of medications in PWD was eight compared with three in PWOD (p < 0.001). After adjustment, PWD had significantly higher odds of being prescribed ≥5 medications (AOR 3.0; 95% CI: 2.1-4.3) or ≥10 medications (AOR 2.8; 95% CI: 2.0-4.2) compared with PWOD. The largest sources of medications among PWD were cardiovascular and central nervous system medications; usage from other categories was generally elevated in PWD compared with PWOD. PWD had higher odds of receiving at least one highly sedating or anticholinergic medication (AOR 2.5; 95% CI: 1.6-3.9). CONCLUSION: In a representative sample of outpatient visits, polypharmacy was extremely common among PWD, driven by a wide array of medication categories. Addressing polypharmacy in PWD will require cross-cutting and multidisciplinary approaches.

A Novel Method for Identifying a Parsimonious and Accurate Predictive Model for Multiple Clinical Outcomes.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Most methods for developing clinical prognostic models focus on identifying parsimonious and accurate models to predict a single outcome; however, patients and providers often want to predict multiple outcomes simultaneously. As an example, for older adults one is often interested in predicting nursing home admission as well as mortality. We propose and evaluate a novel predictor-selection computing method for multiple outcomes and provide the code for its implementation. METHODS: Our proposed algorithm selected the best subset of common predictors based on the minimum average normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) across outcomes: the Best Average BIC (baBIC) method. We compared the predictive accuracy (Harrell's C-statistic) and parsimony (number of predictors) of the model obtained using the baBIC method with: 1) a subset of common predictors obtained from the union of optimal models for each outcome (Union method), 2) a subset obtained from the intersection of optimal models for each outcome (Intersection method), and 3) a model with no variable selection (Full method). We used a case-study data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to demonstrate our method and conducted a simulation study to investigate performance. RESULTS: In the case-study data and simulations, the average Harrell's C-statistics across outcomes of the models obtained with the baBIC and Union methods were comparable. Despite the similar discrimination, the baBIC method produced more parsimonious models than the Union method. In contrast, the models selected with the Intersection method were the most parsimonious, but with worst predictive accuracy, and the opposite was true in the Full method. In the simulations, the baBIC method performed well by identifying many of the predictors selected in the baBIC model of the case-study data most of the time and excluding those not selected in the majority of the simulations. CONCLUSIONS: Our method identified a common subset of variables to predict multiple clinical outcomes with superior balance between parsimony and predictive accuracy to current methods.

A Novel Metric for Developing Easy-to-Use and Accurate Clinical Prediction Models: The Time-cost Information Criterion.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend that clinicians use clinical prediction models to estimate future risk to guide decisions. For example, predicted fracture risk is a major factor in the decision to initiate bisphosphonate medications. However, current methods for developing prediction models often lead to models that are accurate but difficult to use in clinical settings. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to develop and test whether a new metric that explicitly balances model accuracy with clinical usability leads to accurate, easier-to-use prediction models. METHODS: We propose a new metric called the Time-cost Information Criterion (TCIC) that will penalize potential predictor variables that take a long time to obtain in clinical settings. To demonstrate how the TCIC can be used to develop models that are easier-to-use in clinical settings, we use data from the 2000 wave of the Health and Retirement Study (n=6311) to develop and compare time to mortality prediction models using a traditional metric (Bayesian Information Criterion or BIC) and the TCIC. RESULTS: We found that the TCIC models utilized predictors that could be obtained more quickly than BIC models while achieving similar discrimination. For example, the TCIC identified a 7-predictor model with a total time-cost of 44 seconds, while the BIC identified a 7-predictor model with a time-cost of 119 seconds. The Harrell C-statistic of the TCIC and BIC 7-predictor models did not differ (0.7065 vs. 0.7088, P=0.11). CONCLUSION: Accounting for the time-costs of potential predictor variables through the use of the TCIC led to the development of an easier-to-use mortality prediction model with similar discrimination.

Association of ß-Blockers With Functional Outcomes, Death, and Rehospitalization in Older Nursing Home Residents After Acute Myocardial Infarction.

Importance: Although ß-blockers are a mainstay of treatment after acute myocardial infarction (AMI), these medications are commonly not prescribed for older nursing home residents after AMI, in part owing to concerns about potential functional harms and uncertainty of benefit. Objective: To study the association of ß-blockers after AMI with functional decline, mortality, and rehospitalization among long-stay nursing home residents 65 years or older. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study of nursing home residents with AMI from May 1, 2007, to March 31, 2010, used national data from the Minimum Data Set, version 2.0, and Medicare Parts A and D. Individuals with ß-blocker use before AMI were excluded. Propensity score-based methods were used to compare outcomes in people who did vs did not initiate ß-blocker therapy after AMI hospitalization. Main Outcomes and Measures: Functional decline, death, and rehospitalization in the first 90 days after AMI. Functional status was measured using the Morris scale of independence in activities of daily living. Results: The initial cohort of 15 720 patients (11 140 women [70.9%] and 4580 men [29.1%]; mean [SD] age, 83 [8] years) included 8953 new ß-blocker users and 6767 nonusers. The propensity-matched cohort included 5496 new users of ß-blockers and an equal number of nonusers for a total cohort of 10 992 participants (7788 women [70.9%]; 3204 men [29.1%]; mean [SD] age, 84 [8] years). Users of ß-blockers were more likely than nonusers to experience functional decline (odds ratio [OR], 1.14; 95% CI, 1.02-1.28), with a number needed to harm of 52 (95% CI, 32-141). Conversely, ß-blocker users were less likely than nonusers to die (hazard ratio [HR], 0.74; 95% CI, 0.67-0.83) and had similar rates of rehospitalization (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.98-1.14). Nursing home residents with moderate or severe cognitive impairment or severe functional dependency were particularly likely to experience functional decline from ß-blockers (OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.11-1.61 and OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.10-1.59, respectively). In contrast, little evidence of functional decline due to ß-blockers was found in participants with intact cognition or mild dementia (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.89-1.20; P = .03 for effect modification) or in those in the best (OR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.77-1.26) and intermediate (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.86-1.27) tertiles of functional independence (P = .06 for effect modification). Mortality benefits of ß-blockers were similar across all subgroups. Conclusions and Relevance: Use of ß-blockers after AMI is associated with functional decline in older nursing home residents with substantial cognitive or functional impairment, but not in those with relatively preserved mental and functional abilities. Use of ß-blockers yielded a considerable mortality benefit in all groups.

Functional outcomes after lower extremity revascularization in nursing home residents: a national cohort study.

IMPORTANCE: Lower extremity revascularization often seeks to allow patients with peripheral arterial disease to maintain the ability to walk, a key aspect of functional independence. Surgical outcomes in patients with high levels of functional dependence are poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To determine functional status trajectories, changes in ambulatory status, and survival after lower extremity revascularization in nursing home residents. DESIGN: Using full Medicare claims data for 2005 to 2009, we identified nursing home residents who underwent lower extremity revascularization. With the Minimum Data Set for Nursing Homes activities of daily living summary score, we examined changes in their ambulatory and functional status after surgery. We identified patient and surgery characteristics associated with a composite measure of clinical and functional failure-death or nonambulatory status 1 year after surgery. SETTING: All nursing homes in the United States participating in Medicare or Medicaid. PARTICIPANTS: Nursing home residents who underwent lower extremity revascularization. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Functional status, ambulatory status, and death. RESULTS: During the study period, 10,784 long-term nursing home residents underwent lower extremity revascularization. Prior to surgery, 75% of the residents were not walking; 40% had experienced functional decline. One year after surgery, 51% of patients had died, 28% were nonambulatory, and 32% had sustained functional decline. Among 1672 residents who were ambulatory before surgery, 63% had died or were nonambulatory at 1 year; among 7188 who were nonambulatory, 89% had died or were nonambulatory. After multivariate adjustment, factors independently associated with death or nonambulatory status were 80 years or older (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 1.28; 95% CI, 1.16-1.40), cognitive impairment (AHR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.18-1.29), congestive heart failure (AHR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.11-1.22), renal failure (AHR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.04-1.14), emergent surgery (AHR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.23-1.35), nonambulatory status before surgery (AHR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.78-1.99), and decline in activities of daily living before surgery (AHR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.18-1.28). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Of nursing home residents in the United States who undergo lower extremity revascularization, few are alive and ambulatory 1 year after surgery. Most who were still alive had gained little, if any, function.